I worked in the oil industry for about 35 yrs but I have always asked and wondered what will happen to Nigeria if there is no more Oil to produce or if oil is produced but is no more in need and hence not sold.
Britain already set their target on when to stop approving new petrol engine cars. Brazil and South Americans are working hard to use sugar cane and other organic materials to produce fuel for propelling motors. The list of the Oil use threat is endless but what of if the oil on its own finish even before the world say “no to Crude products”?
There is no oil that last forever. It is not an ocean.
It depletes as u flow it out of the reservoir both in Volume and in the drive that make it come to surface. At some point u cant flow the remaining oil from a reservoir out again bcos the pressure that pushes it to the surface won’t be enough again to overcome the weight of the oil column in the pipe that is the part it gets to surface. Normally in Petroleum Technology, we initiate secondary recovery processes which will also not be able to recover anything when it gets to a certain variable conditions down the hole. That is to say that when Nigeria is said to have 38bn proven oil reserve in 2011, u don’t go and start dividing 38bn barrels by 2.5 barells per day Nigerian production in those day to get number of years…daily production is far less now.
Nigerian oil won’t be an exemption in depletion.
There was about 38bn barrels proven reserve of oil in Nigeria in 2011 when the assessment was made and if u divide it by 2.5 million per day production (remember what I said about recoverable Volume), u see the answer for yourself.
But DPR of Government has said oil will finish if current reserve is maintained only or not sustained in 55 yrs.
Independent research put it at 50 yrs, some said 37yrs etc.
World Bank Chief Economist for Africa Shanty Devaranja said Nigerian oil will finish in 41 yrs time while Angola will be 21yrs. Since the data of 38bn was as at 2011 (6yrs ago), it may be right to assume that more proven reserves may be added before the postulated 41 yrs elapse, based on fact that Seismic operations is ongoing along the Chad basin and some part of middle belt and in deep water region. It may be a good assumption to add another like 10 bln barrel in those 41yrs period. That may be why DPR estimated that Nigerian Oil will finish in 55 yrs.
But my concern is that Nigeria is not serious to create a strong alternative means of generating foreign exchange after the oil is gone or the world gone into something else apart from. Dubai has gone into Tourism and Commerce. Indonesia is going industrialisation, Saudi is going Overseas investment. What are we we creating to be the alternative revenue generator when oil finishes. Indonesia stopped exporting oil since over 7yrs ago and resort to exporting refined products only to create employment and raise GDP considerably.
Home grown Technology, Manufacturing, Agriculture and agric industry would have been good things, Entertainment industry would have also been one of the hopefuls because We have made name in music and home videos… A massive development in that area would make it massive like Hollywood. Good controls will not make it beneficial to the practitioners. The current situation where producers use actors without payment in the name of making her or him get a face is rubbish and not good for the economy.
A local home brewed technology and research development which is manufacturing locally would have been the best cover up so we don’t spend the revenue that will come then just trying import same simple technology products. Tertiary institutions research and students projects which is currently unattended to can be invested in and developed into finished products.. We need to start now except we want to turn to Haiti after enjoying in Oil era. Corruption and wasteful spending in government must be stopped by all means because u don’t rise by stealing or waisting the one u make.
By Sir. Engr. Dr. Uche Obiajulu FNSE